nytimes election results 2017 nj governor

From a list of seven different policy areas asked about in the poll, “taxes” emerges, nominally, as the top issue (27%) followed by jobs and the economy (20%), schools and education (16%), and the pandemic (15%). Back in August, the pandemic and taxes were the top concerns named by New Jersey voters. New Jersey issue priorities have been shuffled a bit over the past few months. That outcome would require a pretty sizable collapse of Democratic turnout,” said Murray. “Even if we figure in potential error margins for these partisan group results, Ciattarelli cannot win this race based on registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters alone. This year, those voters tilt toward the incumbent (46% to 40%). Pundits tend to point to New Jersey’s large group of “unaffiliated” voters – those who are not registered with any political party – as a key to winning New Jersey elections. Murphy is backed by 75% of registered Democrats and Ciattarelli is backed by 75% of registered Republicans. Another way to look at partisan support is based on how voters are actually registered. Self-described independents are evenly divided (41% for Ciattarelli and 40% for Murphy). 21-25, 2021īoth major party candidates command the support of their respective partisan bases 93% of self-identified Democrats back Murphy and 87% of self-identified Republicans back Ciattarelli. However, Murphy enjoys a large 63% to 26% margin among voters who have already cast their ballots or who intend to vote early. Ciattarelli actually has a lead among those who intend to vote on Election Day, ranging anywhere from 5 points (47% to 42%) to 12 points (51% to 39%) depending on the turnout model. A traditional likely voter model similar to one used by Monmouth during the 2017 gubernatorial campaign gives the incumbent an 11-point lead (51% to 40%). These margins ranged from 9 to 19 points in prior polls. Ciattarelli has chipped away at Murphy’s lead but hasn’t delivered the knockout he needs,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.Ī range of probabilistic electorate models* show Murphy with a lead between 8 and 14 points depending on the scenario.

“We’ve had a couple of debates and a slew of advertising since the last Monmouth poll. He also has a small lead among white college graduates (49% to 43%), but trails Ciattarelli among white voters without a bachelor’s degree (35% to 55%). Murphy continues to hold a large advantage among black voters (83% to 6%) as well as Latinos, Asians and other voters of color (63% to 22%). The most notable exception is the senior vote (age 65+), which has gone from a 53% to 37% lead for Murphy in September to a smaller 48% to 43% lead in the current poll. Support levels among various demographic groups are generally in line with where they stood last month. This 11-point margin is a slight decrease for the incumbent from results in September (13 points, 51% to 38%) and August (16 points, 52% to 36%).

Half (50%) of registered voters support Murphy while 39% back Ciattarelli. The poll also finds that Garden State opinion of President Joe Biden – who appeared at a groundbreaking event in Kearny this week – has dropped into negative territory. Even though the Covid pandemic has diminished as a voter concern as education has risen as a priority, the Democratic incumbent maintains a lead because he has a clear edge on both issues. However, Murphy is more trusted across a wider range of policy areas. A top issue for voters in the current poll is taxes, an area where Ciattarelli, the Republican challenger, has a decided advantage. West Long Branch, NJ – Phil Murphy maintains a sizable lead over Jack Ciattarelli, although the margin has narrowed over the past two months, according to the final Monmouth ( “Mon-muth” ) University Poll of the New Jersey governor’s race.

Nytimes election results 2017 nj governor